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April 2018 Presidential Elections: Emmanéul Marshélie faces off against Angélica Griliús

Republican incumbent Emmanéul Marshélie faces off against the Democratic challenger Angélica Griliús. Polls say that Democrats will obtain victory.

Meridia - The race for the Presidential Elections gets closer, day by day.

The battered Republicans face off against their opposition, the Democrats, who are widely expected to win this election. But no one is certain on what margin. Shall it be neck and neck, or a prestigious victory? 

As the two parties campaign, this shall be determined. 

Why are the Democrats in the lead?

Meridia has been hit by a corruption scandal involving various officials and/or families of said authorities, and as D’Maié’s government hesitates to open up an investigation and instead denies everything, his popularity worsens by the hour. Already some high-ranking Republicans have declared their support for Angélica, in a clear-cut show of dissent in protest. These include even D’Maié’s own daughter, Diamantínia, who was one of the main leakers to the press.

And the Republicans’ coalition allies are no better. The Libertarians are to decide soon if they are to stay in the right-wing coalition, and the Nationalists have issued an ultimatum for the scandal to be investigated. 

Are the Coalition allies important?

It cannot be stressed enough how important they are.

Despite the Nationalists only having 2% of the Delegates of the Nation, they are a critical partner, as, without them, the coalition’s majority would be reduced to 50%, losing its mandate to govern the country. If the Libertarians leave, it would be worse, as they control 10.5% of that chamber’s members.

Corruption happens, but are there other reasons why D’Maié is so unpopular that the Republicans are sure to lose?

What has also diminished support for the Republicans has been its foreign stance, as D’Maié’s government has sided with the AU. This is not controversial, but one thing is: unconfirmed rumours suggest that D’Maié is willing to go to war against Akarus if the AU does, indeed, declare it. This would include a 25% increase in military spending, something unpopular with the pacifist Meridian population, and something that angers their main allies, the Libertarians. These are mere rumours, however, and not confirmed by the government or any reliable evidence, other than leaks from what is presumed to be aides.

D’Maié is facing heat after his cuts to education and healthcare as well, and a sluggish economy that, while not in recession and in fair shape, is also not growing much and just “stuck”, with GDP expanding only 0.5% last year. Some fear that this might become a prelude to an actual recession.

And another, yet minor and redundant reason D’Maié’s support is waning is his past remarks towards Parthenians in the 1990s, calling them “foreigners”, “parasites”, “thieves” and “not true Meridians”. D’Maié tearfully apologized for these comments in 2007, even offering to work without pay for a day to both the Atenios and Anatolia regions (in his native Canarto, there is a tradition that you may offer your apologies by working without pay), but the thought still lingers, especially in the regions of Atenios, Anatolia, and, to a lesser degree, Asturia. In Atenios, especially, he is reviled, as shown by the assassination attempt when he officially visited the region in 2016 as Prime Minister. Whilst many, even in Atenios, were horrified by the attack, it showed that Atenios is the region that most hates him.

Wait, why are you focusing on D’Maié and not Marshélie?

Meridia is a parliamentary republic, or so to say. The President is a mere figurehead, and thus has little to no power. Why are they important nowadays? Mostly due to their elections being a general poll of the country.

The Presidential Elections happen in April 18th, and the General Elections occur in October of the same date and year. No matter how nice or clean you are, you, as the President, will be thrown out by the electorate if they hate their current government.

It is also a chance to earn tremendous prestige before October. For example, if the Democrats win by a landslide, that gives them immense legitimacy, and it humiliates their rivals, the Republicans. On the other hand, if the results are very close, the Republicans might go on a counteroffensive, probably kicking D’Maié out and vigorously campaign to convince the nation and stay in power.

All will be determined on the 18th.